British Association of Professionals from Europe

The UK Finance Bill 2011 introduces an exemption from UK corporation tax on the profits earned and gains incurred by foreign branches of UK companies.

Scope Of The Exemption

The exemption is available to all large and medium-sized UK companies.

The exemption is also available to small companies with branches located in jurisdictions with which UK has double taxation treaties containing a non-discrimination clause.

Application Of The Exemption

The exemption will operate through an ‘opt in’ system, which means the companies will need to make an election to claim the exemption.

The election covers all of the company’s overseas branches (including future branches) and will apply from the beginning of the following accounting period.

If a company opts into the regime then its overseas branches are not subject to UK corporation tax and the losses are not relievable in the UK. If an election is not made, branch profits will continue to be taxable and losses relievable.

There are transitional rules in place which will facilitate the ‘claw-back’ of relief for losses incurred in the 6 years preceding the first year to which opt-in election will apply. These claw-back rules are extended if such losses are above ?50 million.

The election, once made, can only be revoked in limited circumstances. So careful consideration needs to be given prior to making the election.

Exceptions & Anti-Avoidance

•The exemption will not apply to small companies in respect of their branches in countries / territories with which the UK does not have a full double taxation treaty containing a non-discrimination clause.
•The exemption will also not apply to chargeable gains made by ‘close companies’ (broadly companies that are controlled by five or fewer ‘participators’ or by participators who are also directors).
•There are also several stringent anti-avoidance rules to prevent the artificial diversion of profits to branches located in lower or nil tax jurisdictions. These anti-avoidance rules include motive test, lower level of taxation and de minimis level of profit tests to prevent the abuse of the legislation.

Opportunities

The new rules give rise to potential tax planning opportunities for suitable businesses.

Careful consideration and planning is required in applying for this exemption to ensure that the requirements are met and that the claim is not caught by the anti-avoidance rules.

The UK is considered to be an extremely attractive ‘holding’ Company location, the benefits of which include:-

•Favourable tax treatment of dividend income;
•No Withholding Tax on dividends to its shareholders with no requirement that the shareholder(s) be situated in an EU/tax treaty country;
•No Capital Gains Tax on disposal of shareholdings in subsidiaries, subject to satisfaction of certain criteria;
•Extensive Double Tax Treaty network;
•No Capital Gains Tax on profits from disposal of UK Holding Company shares by non-resident shareholders.
Tax Exemption On Foreign Dividends
With effect from 1st July, 2009, dividend distributions received by a UK Company are exempt from UK taxation, subject to satisfaction of certain conditions. There are differing conditions for small, medium and large sized companies and where none of the exemptions apply, foreign dividends received will be subject to UK taxation at the prevailing rates.

The UK does not impose withholding tax on outward bound dividends to anywhere in the world.

Double Tax Treaties (DTT)
The UK has the largest number of DTTs worldwide, with over 125 in force. Many of these provide for a zero, or low rate, of dividend withholding tax on dividend payments to the UK.

Capital Gains Tax Exemption (CGT)
Under this exemption regime, gains made by a UK trading Company or member of a qualifying group on the disposal of a “substantial shareholding” will not be subject to CGT, nor will any loss on such a disposal be allowable for tax purposes.

Deduction For Interest
Interest payable for trade related purposes is allowed as a trading expense. Interest on borrowings for non-trading purposes can qualify as tax deductible, subject to certain conditions being met and the loan on which interest is charged being used for specific purposes including:

•Investment in subsidiaries; or
•Loans to subsidiaries for investment purposes.
Sale Of Shares In A UK Company
Non-UK resident shareholders are not subject to capital gains tax on their own disposals of the shares they hold in a UK Company.

Controlled Foreign Companies (CFCs)
Under current CFC rules, an overseas subsidiary may be subject to UK taxation where the overseas tax paid on the subsidiary’s profits is less than 75% of the amount which would otherwise be charged in the UK on those profits.

However, CFCs with genuine economic activity overseas, where the main purpose of the CFC is not to reduce UK taxation, may be excluded from charges arising under the CFC rules.

Transfer-Pricing
In accordance with UK legislation, where a UK Company is under common control with a non-resident Company, transactions between those entities must be carried out on an “arms length basis”. This effectively means, that pricing policy between the companies must be the same as would be expected if the companies were independent of each other.

Close Companies And Loans To Participators
A UK resident Company that is controlled by five or fewer persons is called a close Company under current UK tax legislation. Normally, the participators of a close Company will be its shareholders, but the definition also includes loan creditors.

If a UK Company makes a loan to a participator who is an individual and the loan is outstanding for more than 9 months after the end of the accounting period in which it was made, then a tax liability of 25% of the outstanding amount of the loan arises to the UK Company. However, once the loan is repaid, the above referenced charge may be refunded to the Company subject to the appropriate application for same being made.

Worldwide Debt Cap Rules
Worldwide debt cap rules apply under UK legislation to finance expenses payable in relation to accounting periods beginning on or after 1 January 2010.

These rules ensure that there is no UK corporation tax relief for financing costs, which exceed the worldwide group’s external financing costs. The main aim of this regime is to prevent multinational groups reducing their UK tax bill by attributing more than the “fair share” of their debt to their UK operations (but the rules are much wider than this). The rules apply to debt, which already exists, as well as new debt, for accounting periods beginning on or after 1 January 2010.

All of the above, coupled with the strong commercial image of the UK jurisdiction generally, make this jurisdiction one of the premier locations for holding purposes.

The United Kingdom has a strong tradition of attracting international businesses which are expanding their operations or want a footprint in Europe.

The UK has the most extensive tax treaty network in the world with over 125 treaties in force.

The UK holds a number of key attractions including:

•No withholding tax on dividend payments, irrespective of where the shareholder is resident;
•UK tax exemption on qualifying foreign dividends;
•Capital Gains Tax exemption where a UK resident company disposes its shareholdings, if certain conditions apply;
•No UK Capital Gains Tax on profits from disposal of UK Company’s shares by non-resident shareholders;
•A standard tax rate of 26%, which can be cut to 20%, again if certain conditions are met; and
•Access to the benefits of EU directives.
UK Private Limited Companies – The Facts Formation:
 24 hours (premium fee applies)
or
5-6 working days (standard incorporation procedure)
 
Shelf Companies:
 Available
 
Authorised Share Capital:
 Unlimited and no restriction on currency
 
Issued Share Capital:
 •Minimum paid up share capital = £1
•No restriction on currency
•No capital tax on issued share capital
 
Directors:

•Minimum number of directors: 1
•Individual director required although corporate directors are also permitted
•No restrictions on residence or nationality
 
Secretary:
•Not obligatory
•No restrictions on residence or nationality
 
Shareholders:
•Minimum number of shareholders: 1
•Corporate shareholders permitted
 
Public Filing:
 •Audited financial statements must be filed every year within 9 months of financial year-end (exemptions available from audit requirement).
•Annual return must be filed every year
 
Corporation Tax Rates:

•Profits up to £300,000 at small company rate 20%
•Profits between £300,000 and £1,500,000 at marginal rate 27.75%
•Where profits are above £1,500,000, the entire profits will be taxed at full rate 26%
Note: The small company rate is subject to certain criteria being met. Where a company has other associated companies, the £300,000 small company threshold will be divided by the number of associated companies.
 
Corporation Tax Returns:
Must be filed within 12 months of accounting period end.
 
Capital Gains for Companies:
Rates above apply subject to potential exemption where a UK resident company sells shares if certain conditions apply
 
Withholding Tax:
•Dividends: 0%
•Royalties: 20%*
•Interest: 20%*
(*Can be reduced/eliminated with careful planning or on application double tax treaty relief may be available)
 
Double Tax Treaties:
 Over 125 in force

On the new page you can find reports about Corporate Tax Incentives in different countries. By Salans.

We would like to invite you for the first meeting of BAPE members on the 8th April at 18.30 at Institute of Directors Hub City of London, 35 New Broad Street (Liverpool Street) as a meeting point. It is time to meet up in person and to discuss current matters and developments. New members are welcome!

My former client is looking for a Polish speaker, who is able to deliver a teaching course to a group of media professionals based in South West London.

These are the course details:

·         Course: a Beginners group (6 people) in a media company

·         Location: W4 Gunnersbury in southwest London – zone 3 (District line and London overground to Stratford). Location is only 3 minutes’ walk from the station.

·         Time: Mondays lunchtime 12.00-13.30/ 12.30-14.00

·         Duration: 12 weeks

·         Starting date: to be confirmed (ideally on 11th or 18th April)

·         Rate: £26 p/h

·         There might be some flexibility, so if you are interested please get in contact and we can talk about the details.

I thought it might interest someone living or working in that area or in the nearby Hammersmith.

If anyone interested, plase contact Maria Gordo on 020 7233 8205.

Good luck!

Janina Nowacka

To a new group on LinkedIn – NRPSI. The purpose of the group to liaise professional linguists with professionals from the other fields in order to boost exchange of skills and job opportunities.

Macroeconomics

1)       Corporate tax rate in Ukraine is 25%, compared with 35-41.6% combined federal-state in the US

2)       Ukraine’s new tax code implemented in 2010 established zero taxation for small businesses for a period of five years and for the hospitality sector and light industry for 10 years

3)       Income tax rate in Ukraine is 15%, compared with up to 46% combined federal-state in the US

4)       Budget deficit in Ukraine is projected to be 3.5% of GDP in 2011, compared with 10.91% in the US

5)       Government external debt in Ukraine is projected to be 25.3% of GDP in 2011, compared with 102.63% in the US

6)       Current account deficit in Ukraine is projected to be under 3% for the second year in a row (actually a surplus in January 2011), comparable to that of the US

7)       Ukraine’s GDP was over $300 billion and its per capital GDP was about $6,700 in 2010, and its GDP growth is projected to be over 4% in 2011 for the second year in a row

8)       Ukraine is a leader in GDP growth rate among the CEE nations

9)       Ukraine has a population of more than 45 million, and a labor force of more than 22 million

Debt & Equity Markets

10)   The market capitalization of the Ukrainian PFTS Stock Exchange is over $25 billion

11)   More than 800 securities are traded on the Ukrainian PFTS Stock Exchange, and 38 securities are traded on the Ukrainian UX Stock Exchange

12)   In 2010, the PFTS index rose 70.2% and the UX index rose 67.9%, outperforming all major global indices

13)   The Ukrainian stock exchanges (PFTS, UX) are projected to increase 30-40% in H2 2011

14)   The ratio of total market capitalization of Ukrainian companies to their total sales is 30% lower than comparable countries (Russia, Kazakhstan, Central and Eastern Europe, Turkey)

15)   Shares of Ukrainian banks are traded more cheaply than stocks of similar banks in Central and Eastern Europe

16)   Investors resumed buying several € billion of Ukrainian corporate and sovereign Eurobonds in September 2010

17)   Ukraine reached an agreement with the International Monetary Fund for a new $14.9 billion loan in July 2010, which Ukraine has begun to drawn down in tranches

International Trade Organizations

18)   Ukraine is a member of the WTO

19)   Ukraine plans to enter into a free trade agreement with the CIS in May 2011

20)   Ukraine plans to enter into a free trade agreement with the EU in 2011

Investment

 21)   Ukraine led Europe in 2009 with a 48% growth year-over-year in foreign direct investment projects 

 22)   Ukraine received about $6 billion in foreign direct investment in 2010, a 7% growth rate year-over-year

 23)   Ukraine expects to receive $21 billion in foreign direct investment in 2011-2012, 40% of it from foreign investors

24)   The Government of Ukraine has approved 163 investment projects worth a total of $46.6 billion

25)   Ukraine’s infrastructure investments for the European Football Championship Euro 2012 include $2 billion for airports, $4 billion for high-speed rail, and over $1 billion for highways and stadiums

26)   Ukraine plans to develop the Northern European model of highways within 5 years

27)   At an International Economic Forum in September 2010, German and Swiss companies pledged to invest €185 million in the Kharkov region of Ukraine

Ukrainian-Russian Economic Cooperation

28)   In November 2010, Russia and Ukraine agreed to a 10-year program on economic cooperation, that included 19 joint projects costing a total of $48 billion

29)   Ukrainian-Russian trade exceeded $35 billion in 2010 toward a long term target of $100 billion

30)   In 2010, Ukraine signed a nuclear power plant deal with Russia valued at $5-6 billion

31)   In 2010, Ukraine signed a new gas deal with Russia, saving Ukraine about $3 billion per year

Privatization

32)   In 2011, Ukraine intends to accelerate the privatization of industrial enterprises, such as telecom providers, power utilities and power distribution companies, chemical manufacturers, and seaports

33)   In the first privatization of 2011, Austrian investment firm EPIC bought a 92.79 percent stake in Ukraine’s main fixed-line operator Ukrtelecom from the Ukrainian government for $1.3 billion

Energy

34)   Ukraine produces about 100,000 barrels of oil per day

35)   Ukraine produces over 20 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year, and has proven reserves of over 1 trillion cubic meters

36)   Ukraine has five nuclear power stations with fifteen reactors with a total power output of 13.6 thousand MW, 47 thermal power stations with a total power output of 32.4 thousand MW, 6 large hydraulic power stations on the Dnieper and 55 small stations on other rivers

37)   Ukraine is a member of the EU Energy Community

38)   Ukraine’s energy strategy is for 20% of energy to come from renewable energy sources by 2020

39)   Ukraine’s feed-in tariff for renewable energy is nearly twice that of some G8 members

40)   Ukraine offers VAT exemption for importation of capital equipment used in renewable energy projects

41)   Ukraine has high average wind speeds, a good solar radiation profile, plentiful biomass raw materials, and numerous dams on the Dnieper River, all ideally suited for renewable energy generation

42)   The World Bank has pledged $200 million to Ukraine to develop energy efficiency projects, and has pledged to buy 10 million Ukrainian carbon credits

43)   Ukraine plans to sell 50 million ERUs for $1 billion

44)   The EBRD has already provided €5 billion for about 200 projects in Ukraine, and continues to provide funding of about €1 billion per year for projects in Ukraine

45)   Ukraine plans to raise $6.5 billion to modernize its gas transport system

46)   15 wind power parks with €7 billion in planned investment are in progress in Crimea, Ukraine, and two solar power plants have been commissioned in Crimea, toward a goal of 750MW of wind energy and 1000MW of solar energy in Crimea

47)   Ukraine plans to build 52 hydroelectric power plants in the Ivano-Frankovsk region

National Innovation Project

48)   The Government of Ukraine plans to apply the best practices of Silicon Valley, Singapore, and Skolkovo in its National Innovation Project

49)   Ukraine is planning to construct a Technopark in Borispol, Kiev Oblast

50)   Ukraine will create a University of Innovation and Nanotechnology

51)   Ukraine created a new Council of Domestic & Foreign Investors that includes the CEOs of Microsoft and other multinational corporations

IT Outsourcing

52)   Ukraine has the world’s 5^th largest and fastest growing IT outsourcing services market in the world, with revenues in 2011 expected to reach $1 billion

53)   There are over 4,000 IT companies and about 300 ISPs in Ukraine, employing over 100,000 hardware, software and IT consulting professionals

54)   Ukraine has about 20 major IT educational centers producing about 30,000 IT-graduates annually with bachelor, MSc or PhD diplomas

55)   The cost of employing a software developer in Ukraine, or outsourcing IT business solutions development to Ukraine, is still about one-half of the cost of doing so in the EU or the US

56)   The IT industry in Ukraine is trending from system integration and development of “turnkey” information systems to Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) and IT business solutions adapted for a long-term perspective

Telecommunications

57)   The telecom services market in Ukraine has annual revenues of more than $1 billion

58)   There are more than 55 million mobile telecom subscribers in Ukraine (higher than 100% saturation)

59)   Ukraine has an internet penetration rate of greater than 33%, or over 15 million users

Transportation

60)   Ukraine has 425 airports and 7 heliports

61)   Ukraine has over 20,000 km of railways, nearly 17,000 km of roadways, and over 20,000 km of waterways

62)   Ukraine has pipelines for gas – 33,327 km; oil – 4,514 km; and refined products – 4,211 km

63)   Ukraine has over 150 merchant marine ships, plus nearly 200 additional merchant marine ships of foreign registry

64)   Ukraine has ports and terminals in Feodosiya, Illichivsk, Mariupol, Nikolaev, Odessa, Yushny, and Sevastopol

Metallurgy

65)   Ukraine produces about 30 million tons of iron and steel annually, accounting for about 5% of GDP, and is the world’s third largest exporter of iron and steel

66)   The metallurgy sector in Ukraine, its largest key industry, includes 14 integrated steel making plants, 7 pipe plants, 10 plants producing metallic articles, 16 merchant-coke plants, 17 refractory production plants, 3 ferroalloy plants, 20 non-ferrous metallurgical works, 35 factories reprocessing ferrous and non-ferrous scrap metal, and other enterprises

67)   Ukraine has about 27 billion tons of iron ore deposits

Machine Building

68)   Machine-building is the largest Ukrainian industrial sector, and the largest machine-building subsectors in terms of their employment are instrument-making, tractor and agricultural machinery building, electric engineering, automobile building, chemical and petrochemical engineering, and machine-tool construction

69)   Ukraine also manufactures science-intensive and highly technological machines and equipment, including the development of the rocket and space industry, aircraft building, production of advanced tankers and large-tonnage vessels, fabrication of turbines for nuclear power plants, highly-efficient gas-pumping installations, equipment for high-voltage power transmission lines, etc.

Automotive Manufacturing

70)   Ukraine produced about 70,000 cars in 2010, and total car production in Ukraine is expected to grow 20-22% in 2011 and reach 271,600 units per year by the end of 2014

71)   Škoda’s Ukrainian arm Eurocar alone is expected to produce 100,000 units in 2011

Aircraft Manufacturing

72)   Ukraine is one out of just nine countries worldwide currently designing and building transport aircraft as well as top-class civil aircraft

73)   The Antonov Aircraft Plant manufactures the An-124 Ruslan, the world’s most power aircraft, and the An-225 Mriya (Dream) aircraft, which has been recognized by the International Aviation Federation as having scored 124 world records

Shipbuilding

74)   The Ukrainian shipbuilding industry is a complex of colleges, universities and research centers; experienced design bureaus; 9 shipbuilding yards with different capacities and specialisation; and a number of ship repair yards

75)   Its close geographical location to European Union, combined with availability of up-to-date design bureaus, powerful production facilities of shipyards, experienced labor force, presence of strong national metallurgic industry make the Ukrainian shipbuilding industry very attractive alternative to distant shipbuilding centers

Agriculture

76)   Ukraine, once “the breadbasket of the Soviet Union”, has the potential to become “the breadbasket of Europe”

77)   Among all the European countries, Ukraine is a leader in growing of sugar beet, buckwheat and carrot; second place in growing of wheat (after Russia) and of tomato (after Poland)

 78)   The market for wheat, barley, sunflower and canola, also grown in Ukraine, has been excellent

 79)   More than 60% of Ukraine is covered in Black earth top soil

 80)   28% of the population work in or are involved in agriculture, and labor is inexpensive

 81)   Ukraine plans to allow the purchase of farm land in 2013

 Chemicals and Petrochemicals

 82)   The multi-branch chemical sector of Ukraine includes chemical, petrochemical and chemical-pharmaceutic sub-sectors with over 1,600 enterprises and structural units

 83)   This sector in Ukraine produces mineral fertilizers, non-organic acids and soda; synthetic resins, plastic masses, chemical fiber, man-made caoutchouc and threads; and car and motor-cycle tires, hoses, and consumer goods

 Pharmaceuticals

 84)   At the present time there are 58 companies manufacturing drugs in Ukraine, mostly producing lower-priced products, such as generic drugs and vitamins

85)   Two of the countries giants in the Ukrainian pharmaceutical industry, Kyivmedpreparat and Halychpharm received the Ukrainian Government’s approval to merge and form Arterium Corp, which will be involved in the research, marketing and distribution of new medical products

86)   Nonetheless, pharmaceuticals imported into the country accounted for 62 per cent of the Ukrainian drugs market; therefore, there is a huge market potential for drug manufacturers willing to establish research, marketing, manufacturing, and distribution in Ukraine

87)   The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of generic medicines is projected to be 31% in Ukraine in local currency between 2011 and 2013, and by way of comparison, the innovative drug subgroups will develop on average by 14% per annum

Fast Moving Consumer Goods

88)   The fast moving consumer goods industry in Ukraine includes over 3,000 enterprises producing textile, knitting, clothing, leather, footwear; basic foods, such as sugar, salt, oil, alcohol, confectionery, etc.; meat and dairy processing, sugar refining, flour milling and cereals production, oil extraction and starch and molasses; and other products

89)   The FMCG sector In Ukraine has considerable production, research and labor potential, but its production capacities are not fully utilized; thus, vast reserves of the sector are potentially available to strategic investors

Retail

90)   The Fozzy Group, the largest retailer in Ukraine, increased their revenues by 37.5% in 2010 on a 6% y-o-y increase in retail trading space

91)   Grocery retailers on the Ukrainian retail market increased their total retail trading areas by 6% y-o-y in 2010 to 2.1 million m²

92)   The Ukrainian ATB-Market retail grocery chain reported the highest growth in operated retail space – a 16% y-o-y increase, after opening 71 new stores in 2010

93)   The Ukrainian retail industry is still unconsolidated, with the top 10 retail operators accounting for less than 25% of the total share, and thus M&A opportunities exist for strategic investors

Hospitality and Tourism

94)   More than 12 million foreign tourists visit Ukraine each year, to see the Carpathian Mountains, the coastline of the Black Sea, the Dnieper River, vineyards, ruins of ancient castles; ancient churches, cathedrals, and monasteries; world-class opera and ballet, and more

95)  In the Ukrainian resort and hotel industry, demand greatly exceeds supply; there are many resorts and tourist places which are up for sale and many of them have put out proposals for investments

96)   The Government of Ukraine is still seeking investors to build hotels for the one million football fans anticipated to attend the European Football Championship Euro 2012

Political Stability

97)   Ukraine has a popularly elected President who is favored to win re-election in 2015, and a ruling coalition in the Ukrainian parliament headed by the President’s party that is expected to solidify their majority in the next parliamentary election in 2012

Anti-Corruption Law

98)   In March 2011, the Ukrainian parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, passed a tough anti-corruption law that was praised by the EU

Crime Rate

99)   With the exception of software piracy, Ukraine’s crime rate is below that of many industrialized nations

100)  Ukraine has anti-money laundering controls approved by the global Financial Action Task Force (FATF)

Sources: Over 100 various sources of information, too numerous to list. No originality of thought in the content herein is claimed.

http://bearmedia.com.ua/news/100-reasons-to-invest-in-ukraine/

CID – CIS Investment Digest. The freshest news about investments in CIS countries. by Cosinta Limited

 Starts: Monday April 18, 2011, 09:00AM EEST 
Ends: Tuesday April 19, 2011, 05:00PM EEST 
Event Type: Conference
Location: InterContinental Hotel
Email: steel@caspian-events.com
Киев – Kiev, UKRAINE UA 
Price: steel@caspian-events.com
Website: http://www.caspian-events.com
Industry: mining & metals

Keywords: ArcelorMittal Kriviy Rih, Daewoo International, Evraz, Vale International, Voestalpine, IMIDRO, Zaporizhstal, KazFerroSteel, Mobarakeh, Khorasan Steel Complex, Colakoglu Metalurji, Kibar Holding, Kumba International Trading, Kurum Holding, LG Internationa

Intended For: • Integrated Iron-and-Steel Works, Mini-mills, Re-rollers • Mining & Industrial Companies • Trading Companies/Exporters/Importers • Steel Service Centers/ End-users • Steel & Mining equipment / Systems suppliers • Sea Shipping Companies & Logistics P

Organization: Caspian Business Events and Business Forum

CIS steel exporters having 40% share in the world trade volume are on a front line of industry’s recovery after global financial crisis. Despite steady positive changes in regional consumption in 2010, staking on increase of export volumes turned out to be hardly possible. Nevertheless, CIS exporters managed to make price dynamics more favorable with the 20-40% growth at the end of 2010 (in comparison with 2009). The price trend is expected to be positive at least on the first quarter of 2011, however market conditions are to be quite difficult: consumption remains on a low level, regional competition becomes tougher, and the role of production cost is still an essential factor. However dynamic foreign trade activity as well as recent changes in ownership structure will support a high level of buyers’ interest in key consuming regions of the world, giving new possibilities for expansion of cooperation. Thereby CIS suppliers will definitely keep the leading positions in the world arena, developing supply chains on traditional and new sales markets. In spite of local demand recovery in CIS raw materials segment, the role of export markets remains significant since the prospected increase of extraction volumes does not correspond to domestic consumption growth. Quotations dependence on steel market situation will keep growing. However, as well as in 2010, raw materials exporters will increase the prices not only on the basis of rolled steel demand growth, but also on expectations of trade activity increase. Therefore market volatility will last.